Riaan Inothi Lomhleli: Inguqulo yale ndaba ivela ku-CNN Khonamanjalo ephephandabeni lanamuhla laseMpumalanga Ephakathi, ukubuka kathathu ngeviki ngaphakathi kwezindaba ezinkulu zesifunda. Bhalisa lapha.
CNN
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Nini Umongameli waseChina uXi Jinping eRiyadh emahoreni azayo abaholi baseSaudi kulindeleke ukuthi bamamukele ngobukhazikhazi nesimo esivamise ukubekelwe uzakwabo onamasu ombuso, i-United States.
Ukuvakasha kwezinsuku eziningi kuzobandakanya izingqungquthela ezimbili ezizoqoqa abaholi abavela kuwo wonke umhlaba wama-Arab. Kuzosayinwa inqwaba yezivumelwano zezohwebo, ezomnotho kanye nezempi – ezingaba izigidigidi zamarandi.
Abaholi baseSaudi bazofaka uhambo ngomthamo wombukwane. Imidanso yenkemba yendabuko cishe izoqhutshwa kumadili kanokusho. Inkosi yaseSaudi – noma iNkosana yoMqhele enamandla, uMohammed bin Salman – ingase inikeze umholi waseShayina izindondo nezindondo ezithile. Izinkulumo eziningi eziwubungane eziwubungane zizoqhakambisa ukuqhubeka kwezingxoxo, konke ngenhloso yokugcizelela ubudlelwano obujulile phakathi kweBeijing neRiyadh.
Kuzosikhumbuza impatho engasindisiwe eyatholwa uMongameli wase-US u-Donald Trump ngesikhathi evakashele e-Riyadh ngo-2017. Lolo hambo luphinde lwaba umcimbi wezinsuku ezintathu ohlelwe ngokucophelela oklanyelwe ukujabulisa, ngisho noma ngezinye izikhathi kungaqondakali (incazelo yangempela ngemuva. isithombe segciwane se UTrump uthinta i-orb ekhazimulayo ihlala iyimfihlakalo).
Ukwamukeleka kukaXi ngokhaphethi obomvu kuzoba kude kakhulu Uhambo lukaMongameli Joe Biden ukuya e-Riyadh kuleli hlobo. INkosana yaseCrown engamoyikile uMohammed bin Salman ibingelele uMengameli ngesibhakela wabe esemphoxa esidlangalaleni ngesikhathi somhlangano wethebula eliwuchungechunge kuthelevishini, ememezela ukwanda okulinganiselwe kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela okusilele kude kunezidingo zaseMelika. Ngenkathi u-bin Salman ekhipha lesi sinqumo, ithelevishini yezwe laseSaudi yaphendukela kuBiden obebonakala ecasukile, obebonakala sengathi ubanjwe intuthuko.
Ezinyangeni kamuva, iSaudi Arabia yaphindeka kabili ukusika ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha.
Ngokugqamisa umehluko omkhulu nokuvakasha kukaBiden, umbukiso wohambo lukaXi oluya eSaudi Arabia uphethe umyalezo ongaqondile oya e-US. Naphezu kokuncenga okuphindaphindiwe kukaWashington kubalingani bayo baseGulf Arab ukuthi balahle isanqante yezohwebo yaseChina, ubudlelwano balesi sifunda neBeijing buyaqhubeka nokuvela, buthuthuka hhayi kwezohwebo kuphela kodwa nakwezokuphepha.
“Umyalezo wokuqala uthi lena yiSaudi Arabia entsha. Lena iGulf entsha. Lokhu kuyiqiniso elisha,” umhlaziyi we-United Arab Emirates kanye Nomuntu Oyisikhulu Esivakashele e-Harvard University u-Abdulkhaleq Abdulla utshele i-CNN.
“Iqiniso elisha ukuthi iChina iyakhuphuka futhi i-Asia iyakhuphuka nokuthi i-US iyayithanda noma cha, kufanele sibhekane neChina.”
Le ngqungquthela iphawula “ingqopha-mlando” ebudlelwaneni baseShayina nama-Arab, njengoba omunye wosomaqhinga wase-Arab osezingeni eliphezulu ekubeka ku-CNN ekuqaleni kwaleli sonto. Iphinde imele ukunqoba okukhulu kwezombusazwe kuka-Mohammed bin Salman. Kwaphela iminyaka eqandisiwe yi-West elandelayo ukubulawa kwentatheli uJamal Khashoggi e-consulate yaseSaudi e-Istanbul ngo-2018; Manje, i-MBS, njengoba yaziwa abaningi, izobiza imihlangano noXi kanye nabanye abaholi abangama-Arab okungenani abayi-14 ngesaziso esifushane.
E-China, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuyithuba lokukhulisa indawo yayo ye-geopolitical endaweni yangaphambili yase-US – kanti iBeijing izodinga nowoyela weSaudi owengeziwe njengoba ekugcineni iqala ukuxegisa imithetho ye-Covid.
Emashumini amabili eminyaka adlule, abaholi baseShayina babengama-persosi e-Saudi Arabia emelene namakhomanisi eyayizibandakanye neWashington. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-US yayiwumthengi omkhulu kawoyela wombuso. Namuhla, i-US idla ingxenye encane kuphela yalawo mafutha ase-Saudi, futhi i-China iyiklayenti elikhulu le-Saudi Arabia nozakwethu abahwebayo. Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eChina kweqe amabhiliyoni angama-50 zamaRandi ngonyaka odlule – okungaphezu kwama-18% esamba sempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle yombuso.
Ukushintshashintsha kobudlelwane bezohwebo kubangele ukushintsha kwesimo sengqondo sase-US kubalingani bayo base-Arab. Ngo-2016, lapho abaphathi bakaMongameli wangaphambili u-Barack Obama besayina isivumelwano senuzi esiyingqopha-mlando ne-Iran, iWashington yabeka eceleni abalingani bayo bama-Arab esifundeni, izitha ze-Iran zesikhathi eside, kusukela ohlelweni lwezingxoxo. Ukubekezelela kwe-US indlela yokubusa yokuzimela yaseGulf, kanye nerekhodi layo elibi lamalungelo abantu, nakho kwaqala ukuntengantenga. Ukuba khona kwamasosha ase-US esifundeni – esinye sezikhulu kakhulu emhlabeni – kuncipha.
Ngokukhulayo, abaholi baseGulf baqala ukukhuluma obala ngeMpumalanga Ephakathi yangemva kweMelika. I-Gulf, kusho izikhulu, kuzofanele izame ukusika indlela ngaphandle komnikezeli wayo omkhulu wezokuphepha, i-United States. Leso simo sengqondo sibonakale sikhuphule igagasi elisekelwa uTrump lokujwayela ubudlelwano no-Israyeli, olwaziwa nge-Abraham Accords, naphezu kokuqhubeka nokuduma kwesizathu sasePalestine phakathi koquqaba lwama-Arab. Kuphinde kwadala ukungezwani okudabukisayo phakathi kweSaudi Arabia ne-Iran, kanye nokubuyiselwa okuphelele kobudlelwano phakathi kuka-Abu Dhabi neTehran.
Ngonyaka odlule, amazwe ase-Gulf Arab abonakala eqinisiwe inqubomgomo yawo yokuzimela. Ngenkathi amashumi eminyaka behamba ngaphandle kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US, muva nje bebephuma emgqeni. Abaholi baseGulf bakubeke kwacaca ukuthi ubudlelwano obukhulayo neRussia buzohlala bungenamyocu ngemuva kokuthi iRussia iqale impi e-Ukraine kulo nyaka, nokuvimbela umzamo wamazwe omhlaba wokuhlukanisa iMoscow. Kwesinye isikhathi, abaholi baseGulf babonakala besebenzisana noMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin ngaphezulu inqubomgomo kawoyela.
E-China, iGulf ishaye indiva izexwayiso eziningi ezivela e-US mayelana nokukhulisa ubudlelwano nezinkampani zaseBeijing nezaseChina. Ngonyaka odlule, izikhulu zase-Emirati zasola i-US “ngokuxhaphaza” ukuze ivale isikhungo saseChina emhlabathini wase-Emirati. Ngenkathi i-US isongela ukwenza isivumelwano esiyingqopha-mlando sokudayisa izindiza zempi ze-F-35 e-UAE phezu kwesivumelwano sezwe esinothe ngowoyela se-5G nesikhondlakhondla sezobuchwepheshe saseChina iHuawei, u-Abu Dhabi waqhubeka nesivumelwano.
Ubudlelwano neChina buyathuthuka nakwezempi, ngokudumala kwe-US.
“Impela, iSaudi ayinandaba ne-US esaqhubeka nokuba nguzakwethu obalulekile. Kepha uMbuso ufunde kabuhlungu ukuthi i-US ngeke kuthenjelwe kuyo ukuthi ithole ukwesekwa njalo,” kusho u-Ali Shihabi, umhlaziyi waseSaudi ojwayelene nokucabanga kobuholi baseSaudi.
“UMbuso kufanele usebenzele kulelo qiniso futhi uthuthukise ubudlelwano obubalulekile obuningi emhlabeni owandayo ogcwele izifunda eziningi. Leyo yinqubo eyaqala eminyakeni embalwa edlule futhi engenakuguqulwa.”
“Ukuvakasha kuka-Xi kuzoba wukuvakasha kombuso okuzoqeda lobu budlelwano obukhulayo neChina,” engeza.
Ngenkathi uTrump evakashela eRiyadh ngo-2017, kwakuwuhambo lwakhe lokuqala lwaphesheya kwezilwandle njengomongameli. Ubonakale ekhombisa ukuphenduka kwe-U kusuka ekuxoshweni kuka-Obama esifundeni. IMelika yayisekhoneni leGulf Arab futhi futhi ama-Gulf Arabs ayezomgona ngezandla ezivulekile. Ibeke ithoni yobudlelwano obungenamandla phakathi kukaRiyadh nokuphatha kukaTrump.
Njengoba i-MBS yenqabela ukuphikisa – okwaholela ekubulaweni kukaKhashoggi – ukusekelwa kukaTrump kule nkosana kwakunganyakazi.
UTrump ubuye wabonakala sengathi, okungenani, wenza intando yombuso ngokuhoxisa isivumelwano sika-Obama senuzi ne-Iran, ededela unswinyo ezweni yize uTehran ebambelele ohlangothini lwayo lwesivumelwano.
Kepha kwathi ngonyaka ka-2019, imicibisholo eyethulwa amavukelambuso e-Yemeni Houthi esekelwa yi-Iran yana ezindaweni zokucubungula uwoyela e-Abqaiq naseKhuraiss yaseSaudi Arabia, yadiliza cishe ingxenye yokukhiqizwa kukawoyela wombuso.
Abaphathi bakaTrump abazange basize umlingani wabo futhi amazwe aseGulf Arab abone umbhalo odongeni: ukuphepha kwesifunda kwakungeke kusathunyelwa e-US, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ubani ohlala eHhovisi le-Oval.
Njengoba u-Xi elungiselela ukwehla, u-Abdulla wase-UAE uthe: “Uma iMelika isesimweni sokuphishekela ubudlelwano obungcono, kufanele izinikele kakhulu. Uma singakutholi lokhu kungase kube yisikhathi sokuhlukana, kancane kancane, kancane. Ibhola lisenkantolo yaseWashington.”
