Amaphuzu Abalulekile
- UMPHATHI weReserve Bank uPhilip Lowe usexwayise ngokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo njengoba kulwa nokunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali.
- Iminotho ethuthukile emhlabeni wonke ithintwa yizici ezifanayo, njengoba amabhange amaphakathi ehamba ngendlela efanayo.
- Kodwa amanye amazwe awanamatheli kuzinqubomgomo eziqondiswe kakhulu zokwehla kwamandla emali.
Abanikazi bezindlu ezibolekiwe e-Australia babhekene nobunzima bokukhuphuka kwamazinga enzalo kanye nezixwayiso zokunye okusazokwenzeka njengoba ibhange elikhulu lilwela ukunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Umphathi weBhangengodla kuleli sonto uvume umthelela wokukhushulwa kwenzalo, ngemuva kwalokho .
Iyavela uPhilip Lowe uthe uzwile kubantu ngezimo zabo ezicindezelayo.
“Ngizifunda lezo zincwadi futhi ngizizwa lezo zindaba ngenhliziyo ebuhlungu,” kusho yena. “Ngokwami ngikuthola kuphazamisa.”
UMbusi Webhange Lombuso lase-Australia u-Philip Lowe ngesikhathi Sezilinganiso ZeSenate e-Parliament House e-Canberra. Umthombo: I-AAP / Mick Tsikas
Kodwa uMnu Lowe uthe izilinganiso zenzalo ephakeme ziyadingeka ukuze kunqandwe ukwehla kwamandla emali, okuthi uma kuyekwa kungalungiswa, kusho ukuthi “amazinga enzalo aphezulu kanye nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi okwengeziwe”.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali kubhekisela ekwenyukeni okuqhubekayo kwamanani. Njengoba i-inflation inyuka, kusho ukuthi abantu bangathenga okuncane ngemali yabo.
I-Australia akulona kuphela izwe elibhekene nokukhuphuka kwamanani. Izazi zezomnotho zithi umthelela womqedazwe we-COVID-19, impi yase-Ukraine kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo yempahla kuye kwazwakala kuwo wonke umnotho othuthukile.
Izilinganiso zenzalo ziqhathaniswa kanjani kuyo yonke i-G20. Umthombo: Izindaba ze-SBS
‘Ukushaqeka’ komhlaba wonke
USolwazi uMariano Kulish, waseNyuvesi yaseSydney’s School of Economics, uthe umnotho womhlaba uzizwa “ushaqeka” ngokuhlanganyela kulolu bhubhane lwe-COVID-19.
“Lokhu kushaqeka kuthinte imikhakha ehlukene yezomnotho ngendlela ehluke kakhulu. Kushintshe isidingo esikhulu,” etshela abe-SBS News. “Ngalezi zinguquko ezifunwayo, unezinguquko zentengo ehlobene. Ngakho-ke amanye amanani ehlile, amanye akhuphuka kakhulu.”
USolwazi Kulish uthe abenzi bezinqubomgomo e-Australia, e-United States naseYurophu “baphonsa yonke into” ngezindlela ezahlukahlukene zokuvuselela umnotho.
UDiana Mousina, isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu se-AMP, uthe kube nokusimama okuqinile ekukhuleni komnotho kusuka ebuthakathakeni be-COVID-19.
“I-Australia ayiyona into ehlukile kuleyo ndaba ephindaphindwayo. Futhi ngenxa yalokho, sibe ne-inflation ephezulu emhlabeni wonke othuthukile,” utshele i-SBS News.
USolwazi Kulish uthe ukwenyuka kwamandla emali kwehle ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo sezimpahla nezinsiza okuhambisana nezinkinga zenkontileka yokuhlinzeka ngempahla kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba.
“Sisaphila ngemva kwalokho kushaqeka, njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka kakhulu bese kugqugquzelwa impi yase-Ukraine nokunyuka kwentengo yempahla,” esho.
“Ngaso leso sikhathi, amabhange amakhulu ane-inflation target. Ngakho-ke aqala ukukhuphula izinga lenzalo ukuze ukwehla kwamandla emali kubuyele kulokho obekuhlosiwe.”
I-Australia isabele kanjani?
I-Reserve Bank yase-Australia (i-RBA) inomgomo osemthethweni wokwehla kwamandla emali ngamaphesenti angu-2 kuya kwangu-3 futhi izama ukwehlisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabantu ukuze kwehlise ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuke kwafinyelela kumaphesenti angu-7.8 onyakeni kuya kuZibandlela, okuwukukhuphuka okuphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-1990.
Isinyathelo esibalulekile se-RBA sokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali siwukukhuphula izinga lemali elisemthethweni, elinomthelela ekutheni amabhange azimisa kanjani izilinganiso zenzalo.
Ngasekuqaleni kwale nyanga, inyuse izinga lemali ngengxenye yesine yephuzu laya kumaphesenti angu-3.35. Bekungokwesishiyagalolunye ukukhuphuka kusukela ngoMeyi odlule futhi ithatha izinga liye ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoSepthemba 2012.
Umbusi we-RBA uPhilip Lowe uthe nakuba izici zomhlaba zichaza okuningi kwalokhu kwehla kwamandla emali, isidingo esinamandla sengeza nengcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali. Umthombo: Izindaba ze-SBS
Ekhuluma kuleli sonto, uMnu Lowe uthe ukwehla kwamandla emali okungamaphesenti angu-7.8 “kuphezulu kakhulu” futhi kufanele kwehliswe. Uthe abantu base-Australia emashumini eminyaka amuva nje bakhohlwe ngezingozi zokwehla kwamandla emali.
“Abantu bakhohlwe ngempela ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kudle kanjani nokuthi kucekele phansi kanjani imali oyongile,” usho kanje.
“Indlela okwakwenza ngayo ukungalingani kweholo kwaba kubi nakakhulu. Yeka ukuthi kwababuhlungu kanjani abampofu. Ngakho ngicabanga ukuthi sesikukhohliwe lokho ngoba sekuphele iminyaka engu-30 sahlala kulowo mhlaba.”
Ukwehla kwamandla emali e-Australia kwaqala ukwanda ekuqaleni kwawo-1970 futhi kwahlala kungaphezu kwamaphesenti ayisishiyagalombili engxenyeni yokugcina yeshumi leminyaka. Yahlala iphezulu kwaze kwaqala ukuwohloka komnotho ngo-1990-1992.
Kuthiwani ngamanye amazwe?
Unksz Mousina uthe umnotho emhlabeni wonke uthintwe yizici ezifanayo kuholele ekutheni amabhange amakhulu ahambe ngendlela efanayo – kodwa hhayi ngejubane elifanayo.
I-US Federal Reserve Bank kule nyanga inyuse izinga layo lokuma ngamaphesenti angu-0.25 laya phakathi kwamaphesenti angu-4.5 no-4.75 ekukhuphukeni kwayo kwesishiyagalombili kusukela ngoMashi, futhi yaxwayisa ngokuthi “ukwenyuka okuqhubekayo” kuzodingeka ukuze kunqandwe ukwehla kwamandla emali. Kodwa usihlalo weFederal Reserve uphinde waqaphela ijubane lokwehla kwamandla emali selipholile.
“Uma ubheka e-US, i-inflation isiqala ukwehla – mhlawumbe ayisheshi ngendlela iFederal Reserve ebingathanda ngayo – kodwa kubukeka sengathi isijikile,” kusho uSolwazi Kulish.
“Lapha e-Australia, akukabi njalo. I-US iqinise kakhulu futhi ngokushesha kune-Australia.”
E-Europe, uSolwazi Kulish uthe lesi simo sibhebhethekiswe wukusondela kwayo empini yase-Ukraine nokuncika kwegesi namafutha aseRussia ezimakethe.
Futhi kule nyanga, i-European Central Bank inyuse izinga layo lokuboleka ngengxenye yephuzu lamaphesenti laya kumaphesenti amathathu – izinga eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-2008 – futhi yathembisa ukuletha okunye ukukhuphuka kwamanani ngenyanga ezayo.
Ngokufanayo, iBhange LaseNgilandi lenyuse izinga lalo lebhange elisemthethweni ngamaphesenti angu-0,5 laya kumaphesenti angu-4 ohambweni lwalo lweshumi olulandelanayo futhi lafinyelela eminyakeni engu-14 ephakeme. Embonweni walo obuyekeziwe, iBhangengodla lithe ukwehla kwamandla emali “kungenzeka ukuthi kunyuke kakhulu” futhi ukwehla komnotho kuzoba kubi kakhulu kunalokho obekubikezelwe ngaphambilini.
Imaphi amazwe athatha indlela ehlukile?
Unksz Mousina uthe iChina ayithintekile kangako ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu ngoba ayizange ibhekane nesidingo esikhulayo ngenxa yenqubomgomo eqinile ye-COVID-zero, egcina izingxenye zezwe zivaliwe. Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lihlala lingaphansi kwamaphesenti amabili ngonyaka.
“Ibhange elikhulu lapho belilokhu linciphisa amanani – hhayi kabi – kodwa liye laba nokwehliswa kwamanani ambalwa ukuzama ukufukula umnotho kulezi zinyanga eziyi-12 ezedlule. Futhi kungenzeka ukuthi kwehle kakhulu,” esho.
Kepha uSolwazi Kulish uxwayise ngokufingqa inqubomgomo yezimali eChina kusetshenziswa inkomba eyodwa.
Uthe amazwe afana ne-Argentina awanamatheli ezimisweni eziqondiswe kakhulu zokukhonjwa kwe-inflation, njengoba izinga lokukhuphuka kwamanani emali lifinyelela kumaphesenti ayi-100. Ngenyanga edlule, Ibhodi LeBhange Elikhulu LeRiphabhulikhi yase-Argentina lagcina izinga lenqubomgomo yezimali lingashintshile kumaphesenti angama-75.
Yini elandelayo e-Australia?
Umbusi we-RBA uthe izinga lemali elingamaphesenti angu-3.35 mancane amathuba okuba lifinyelele phezulu futhi kuzodingeka ukwenyuswa okwengeziwe ukuze kwehliswe ukwehla kwamandla emali.
“Angicabangi ukuthi sisesicongweni okwamanje kodwa ukuthi kumele bahambe ibanga elingakanani asikaqiniseki,” usho kanje.
“Kuzoncika emininingwaneni yokwehla kwamandla emali, amandla okusebenzisa imali, amandla omnotho womhlaba kanye nokuthi kwenzekani ngamanani namaholo.”
UNksz Mousina uthe amanani enzalo e-Australia angafinyelela emazingeni omhlaba.
“Kodwa ngokubona kwethu, ngeke sifike lapho. Sicabanga ukuthi izinga lemali lapha lizoba sezingeni eliphansi uma liqhathaniswa nenzalo yomhlaba wonke,” kusho yena.
Eminyakeni ezayo, uSolwazi Kulish uthe ulindele ukubona ukubuyela emikhubeni yangaphambi kwe-COVID yokukhula okusesilinganisweni, ukwehla kwamandla emali okusesilinganisweni kanye namaholo angempela alinganiselwe kanye nokukhula komkhiqizo.
“Uma kungekho ukuphazamiseka okukhulu noma ukushaqeka, ngicabanga ukuthi ukushaqeka kwe-COVID kuzobe kusebenze ohlelweni.”
Ngokubika okwengeziwe kwe-AAP, Reuters
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