Riaan 
eMinneapolis
CNN
–
Umbiko wemisebenzi kaFebhuwari ubenokuthile okuncane kwawo wonke umuntu.
Kwabasebenzi, kwakukhona imisebenzi; kubaqashi, bekunabasebenzi abagcwalisa ukushoda okubangelwa ubhubhane; ku-Federal Reserve, kwakukhona izinkomba zokuthi imakethe yezabasebenzi iyaxega futhi nezingcindezi zamaholo ziyehla.
Kwaphinda futhi, ingqikithi yemisebenzi eyi-311,000 eyengezwe yayiphezulu kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe ku-205,000, futhi izinga lokungasebenzi likhule ngokumangazayo lafinyelela ku-3.6%.
Umbiko “wawuyisikhwama esixubile” ngesikhathi i-Fed – okuyinto kuleli sonto kubonise indlela yoklebe ngemva kweqoqo eliqinile ledatha yezomnotho yakamuva – isisindo sizohamba sibelula noma sibe nzima ekukhuphukeni kwezinga.
Nakhu okunye okuthathwe embikweni wangoLwesihlanu:
Osomnotho bebekulindele lokho Inzuzo kaJanuwari ye-blockbuster 504,000 inetha yemisebenzi bekuyindida ngenxa yenhlanganisela yezinto ezifana nokulungiswa kwedatha yonyaka, isimo sezulu esifudumele kanye nabaqashi abaqongelela abasebenzi.
Kepha imakethe yezabasebenzi yaseMelika ngoFebhuwari yakhombisa ukuthi, sekukonke, yahlala imelana nokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Fed unyaka wonke. Isifinyezo sakamuva sokuqashwa esivela ku-Bureau of Labor Statistics siphinde sabonisa ukubuyekezwa okuncane nje kwenani lemisebenzi yangoJanuwari.
“Lo mbiko, awuphathelene neFederal Reserve, awukona ukwehla kwamandla emali, umayelana nawe; kumayelana nendlela abasebenzi abaqhuba ngayo,” kusho uClaudia Sahm, umsunguli weSahm Consulting futhi owayengusomnotho weFed. “Futhi futhi, saba nenyanga lapho sengeza khona imisebenzi ku-net, futhi lokhu kubalungele ngempela abasebenzi.”
Kukhona nezimpawu ezikhuthazayo kubaqashi, uthe okunye okuzuzile kakhulu ezimbonini ezike zahlaselwa yizinkinga. ukushoda okukhulu kusukela ubhubhane.
Imboni yezokungcebeleka neyokwamukela izihambi yengeze imisebenzi engu-105,000 ngoFebhuwari, okuhlanganisa u-34% wenzuzo yenyanga yonke futhi kwabeka lo mkhakha eduze kakhulu nokufanisa amazinga awo angaphambi kobhubhane. Kusukela ngoFebhuwari, imboni yezokungcebeleka neyokwamukela izihambi ibiyimisebenzi engama-410,000, noma u-2.42%, enamahloni amazinga okuqashwa kukaFebhuwari 2020, ukuhlaziya kwe-CNN kwedatha ye-BLS kuyakhombisa.
“Okwamanje, sisesigabeni sokubuyela esimeni esijwayelekile mayelana nokushoda kwabasebenzi, ukungabibikho kwezindleko zokuhlinzeka amakhasimende ezikhuphukayo nezikhuphukayo,” kusho uSahm. “Ngincamela ukusibona sibuyela kwesejwayelekile abasebenzi ababuyayo esikhundleni sokuthi amakhasimende ahambe.”
Naphezu kwe I-Fed ikhipha ukulandelana kokwenyuka kwamanani onyakeni odlule, umsebenzi wokwakha awukakantenga. NgoFebhuwari, imboni yezokwakha yengeze imisebenzi engu-24,000, okuphawula izinyanga eziyi-12 zilandelana zokukhula kwemisebenzi.
“Osonkontileka bayaqhubeka nokusebenza ngokusilela emuva osekukhulile kule minyaka emibili edlule njengoba kwavela amathuba amasha kanye nezinkinga zesikhathi sokwakha ezandisiwe,” kubhala u-Nick Grandy, umhlaziyi omkhulu wezokwakha kanye nezakhiwo kwaRSM US.
Imikhakha ephawulekayo eqophe ukulahleka kwemisebenzi phakathi nenyanga yayisolwazini, obekwehla eminye imisebenzi engu-25,000 (-0.8%); ezokuthutha kanye nokugcinwa kwempahla, okwakuyimisebenzi eyi-21,500 (0.3%); kanye nokukhiqiza, okwakuphansi kwezikhundla ezingu-4,000.
Ngenkathi inani lemisebenzi eyisihloko kanye nokulahlekelwa okuncane kakhulu kubonisa amandla ewonke, kunenkomba yokudonsela emuva kuzo zonke izimboni. I-BLS’s employment diffusion index, ekhombisa amaphesenti ezimboni ezingama-250 ezengeze imisebenzi, yehle yafinyelela ku-56, okuyisibalo ukufundwa okuphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2020.
“Lokho kukhomba ukuthi umthelela wenzalo ephezulu ukapakela ezimbonini eziningi,” kusho uJulia Pollak, isazi sezomnotho esiyinhloko kwaZipRecruiter.
I Imakethe yezabasebenzi isalokhu iqinile kakhulu futhi akwenzekanga kahle eminyakeni emithathu edlule. Umbiko wangoLwesihlanu uveze ukuthi “ukwehla kancane kancane kwabuyela emakethe yemisebenzi,” kubhala izazi zezomnotho u-Wells Fargo uSarah House noMichael Pugliese.
Izinga lokungasebenzi linyuke laya ku-3.6% lisuka eminyakeni engama-53 liphansi ngo-3.4%. Lokho kunyuka ngokwengxenye kube ngenxa yabantu abaningi abaphinde bangena emsebenzini futhi bajoyina abantu abangasebenzi, i-BLS ebabeka njengabantu abangenamisebenzi abafuna umsebenzi.
Umbiko wokuqashwa kwangoFebhuwari ubonise ukwenyuka kwamaphesenti angu-0.1 kwezinga lokubamba iqhaza kwabasebenzi ukuya ku-62.5% – okuyisibalo esiphezulu kakhulu esike saba khona kusukela ngo-April 2020.
Isilinganiso sesonto lomsebenzi sifike emahoreni angama-34.5 sisuka emahoreni angama-34.6 abuyekeziwe, okukhombisa “ukwehla okukhulu” kwesidingo sabasebenzi, kusho uBrad McMillan, oyisikhulu sokutshalwa kwezimali kweCommonwealth Financial Network.
Noma kunjalo, njengoba isilinganiso sokuqashwa kwabantu abadala sikhuphuka safinyelela ku-80.5% – ngokulingana namazinga okuqala ka-2020 – kungase kube nesikhala esincane esisele sezinzuzo eziqhubekayo zokuhlinzekwa kwabasebenzi, ngokusho kukaMatt Colyar, isazi sezomnotho seMoody’s Analytics.
“Isibalo sangoFebhuwari, ngaphandle kokufundwa kwasekuqaleni kuka-2020, siphezulu kunanoma yisiphi isilinganiso phakathi nokwanda okuthathe iminyaka eyishumi edlule,” kuphawula uColyar. “Ngisho emakhoneni omnotho lapho isidingo sehlile, amabhizinisi akhombise ukukulangazelela ukudiliza abasebenzi ngobuningi. Njengoba eminye imikhakha iqhubeka nokuqasha ngokushesha, ukukhuphuka kwamaholo kuzohlala kuwusongo oluzayo.”
Ukuncipha kwesilinganiso senzuzo yehora kusiza amathemba kaphethiloli wokufika okuthambile.
Ngo-0.2% enyangeni, ukukhula kwamaholo bekungaphansi kwalokho obekulindelwe futhi kukalwe ngama-4.6% unyaka nonyaka.
“Kube nezimpawu embikweni wanamuhla wokuthi inqubekela phambili ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali ingenziwa ngaphandle kokuqashwa ngokweqile,” kuphawula izazi zezomnotho zase-Wells Fargo.
Kusukela ngo-February, izinga lonyaka lokukhula kwamaholo phakathi nezinyanga ezintathu ezedlule lingaphansi kancane kuka-3.6%, isivinini esabonakala lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kwakungaphansi kwenani le-Fed elihlosiwe, kusho isazi sezomnotho uDean Baker, umsunguli weSikhungo Sokucwaninga Kwezomnotho Nenqubomgomo.
“Mhlawumbe okubaluleke kakhulu ngokombono we-Fed ukwehla kokukhula kwamaholo,” kubhala u-Baker esitatimendeni. “Izinga lonyaka elingu-3.6% ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule alibonakali njengengozi enkulu yokwehla kwamandla emali. Lokhu kwehliswa kwesilinganiso samaholo ngehora, okuhambisana nesilinganiso esingu-4% esibikwe engxenyeni yesine ye-Employment Cost Index, kufanele kunikeze ubufakazi obuqinile bokuthi ukukhula kwamaholo kwehle kakhulu.”
Iqoqo elishisayo ledatha yezomnotho kaJanuwari lisize ukuthumela i-Fed ekujikeni ko-hawkish. USihlalo weFed uJerome Powell utshele amalungu eCongress kuleli sonto ukuthi i-Fed ilungele ukukhulisa ijubane lokukhuphuka kwezinga layo uma kunesidingo.
“Imininingwane yakamuva yezomnotho ifinyelele ngamandla kunalokho obekulindelwe, okuphakamisa ukuthi izinga eliphezulu lenzalo kungenzeka libe phezulu kunalokho obekulindelwe,” kusho uPowell etshela abezomthetho.
Kusenedatha eyengeziwe ngaphambi kokuthi i-Fed ihlangane ngomhlangano wayo wezinsuku ezimbili wokwenza inqubomgomo ngoMashi 21-22, ikakhulukazi Inkomba Yentengo Yabathengi, Inkomba Yentengo Yomkhiqizi kanye nombiko wokuthengisa wokudayisa woMnyango Wezohwebo. Kodwa-ke, umbiko wemisebenzi wangoLwesihlanu kungenzeka ukuthi ngeke uvuse i-Fed, kusho uSean Snaith, isazi sezomnotho kanye nomqondisi we-University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting.
“Asizange sisuke emlilweni wama-alamu amane siye emlilweni wama-alamu amahlanu ngalo mbiko wedatha, kodwa amalangabi okwehla kwamandla emali nawo awacimi,” ebhala encwadini ngoLwesihlanu. “Futhi akukho lutho namuhla olukhombisa ukuthi i-Fed idinga ukushintsha indlela yayo enolaka ekukhuphuleni inzalo.”
Noma kunjalo, isazi sezomnotho u-Gregory Daco uxwayise ngokuthi i-Fed akufanele ingene ogibeni lokwenzelela kokuqinisekisa ngokuvumela idatha yezomnotho enamandla kunaleyo ebilindelwe ibe nomthelela ekuhlaziyweni kombiko wemisebenzi yangoLwesihlanu kanye nombiko we-CPI wesonto elizayo.
I-Fed ingase ibone izinga eliphansi lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokuzuza kwemisebenzi okuqinile njengokubhebhezela ukukhula kwamaholo, kusho uDaco, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu kwa-EY Parthenon.
“Umbono wethu, nokho, ukukhula kancane kwemisebenzi emkhakheni wezimpahla, ukunciphisa amahora asetshenziwe kanye nokulinganisa ukukhula kwamaholo ngokulandelana kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lokubamba iqhaza kwabasebenzi kukhombisa ukwehliswa okwamukelekayo kokucinana kwemakethe yezabasebenzi,” kuphawula uDaco. “Nakuba sivuma ukuthi lo mbiko ubungewona neze obuthaka, siphinde sabona ukuthi eminye yemisebenzi ezuziwe isemikhakheni lapho kube nokushoda kwemisebenzi ngokwesakhiwo – ezempilo kanye nezemfundo ikakhulukazi. Amandla okuqashwa kuleyo mikhakha angahle angabi yinkomba yengcindezi yamaholo, kodwa kunalokho adambise izingqinamba zesakhiwo. ”
