Riaan
CNN
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Ngokuchuma okukhulu kwediplomatic China udale ukungezwani phakathi I-Saudi Arabia ne-Iranekuthuthukiseni izibalo zase-US eGulf nangale kwalokho.
Ngenkathi i-United States ithukuthelise abalingani bayo baseGulf ngokusobala ukuthi iyaphambana nokuziphatha, inqanda ukuhlinzekwa kwezikhali kanye nobudlelwano obushaqisayo, iNkosi yaseSaudi Arabia elinde uMqhele uMbusi uMohammed bin Salman, owaziwa nge-MBS, uthole umoya wobungane kumholi waseChina uXi Jinping.
Bobabili banesibindi, bayagomela, bazimisele ukuzifaka engozini futhi babonakala benesifiso sokuvelela esingagculisi.
Isimemezelo sangoLwesihlanu ukuthi uRiyadh noTehran banaso kuvuselelwe ubudlelwano bezokusebenzela bekungalindelekile, kodwa bekungafanele. Kuwukunqwabelana okunengqondo kwemikhawulo yezokusebenzelana yaseMelika kanye nesifiso esikhulayo saseChina sokubumba umhlaba emzileni wawo.
Ukusho kukaBeijing kokuthi “iChina alifuni nakancane izithakazelo zobugovu eMpumalanga Ephakathi,” kuzwakala kuyize. Ithenga uwoyela omningi eSaudi Arabia ukwedlula noma yiliphi elinye izwe emhlabeni.
UXi udinga amandla ukuze akhulise umnotho waseChina, aqinisekise uzinzo ekhaya futhi aqhubekisele phambili ukukhula kwawo njengombuso womhlaba.
Omunye umphakeli wakhe oyinhloko, iRussia, usempini, ngakho-ke kukhulunywa ngezimpahla zayo. Ngokunciphisa ukungezwani phakathi kwe-Saudi ne-Iran, u-Xi akagcini nje ngokuqinisa ezinye izindlela zakhe zamandla kodwa, esimweni sokungezwani okukhulayo ne-US, futhi ususa izindlela ezingase zibe khona ekufinyeleleni kwakhe kuwoyela waseGulf.
Ukugqugquzeleka kukaXi kubonakala kugqugquzelwa yizintshisekelo ezibanzi, kepha noma kunjalo uMnyango Wezwe LaseMelika usamukele lesi senzo esingalindelekile, okhulumela u-Ned Price ethi, “siyaseka noma yini enganciphisa ukungezwani esifundeni, futhi kusize ukuvimbela izingxabano.”
I-Iran inamandla okuthenga ngenxa yokuthi i-China inamandla kwezomnotho. Ngo-2021 lo mbhangqwana wasayina isivumelwano sokuhwebelana okubikwa ukuthi singabiza ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-400 wokutshalwa kwezimali kwamaShayina eminyakeni engama-25, ukuze kutholakale uwoyela wase-Iranian njalo.
I-Tehran ihlukaniswe unswinyo lwamazwe ngamazwe futhi iBeijing ihlinzeka ngenhlansi yokusiza ngokwezezimali.
Futhi, ngokwamazwi omholi Ophakeme wase-Iran u-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ngonyaka odlule, kunethemba lokuningi okuzayo njengoba ebona amandla ezwe eshintsha empumalanga.
“I-Asia izoba yisizinda solwazi, isikhungo sezomnotho, kanye nesizinda samandla ezepolitiki, kanye nesizinda samandla ezempi,” kusho uKhamenei.
ISaudi isithenge ngoba impi ne-Iran izobhidliza umnotho wayo futhi yonakalise umdlalo we-MBS wokubusa kwesifunda. Imibono yakhe enesibindi ngekusasa lezwe langemuva kwezimbiwa phansi kanye nokuzinza kwasekhaya kuncike ekutshaleni kwangaphakathi izimali eziqinile zikawoyela negesi.
Kungase kuzwakale kulula, kodwa iqiniso lokuthi i-US ayikwazanga ukukususa likhuluma ngobunkimbinkimbi kanye ne-nuance yayo yonke into ebilokhu yenziwa eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule.
Izimpi zaseMelika e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan zishise ingxenye enhle yenhloko-dolobha yayo yezokuxhumana eMiddle East.
Abaningi eGulf babona ukuthuthukiswa kwempi e-Ukraine njengohambo lwaseMelika olungadingekile futhi oluyingozi, futhi ezinye zezimangalo zendawo zikaMongameli waseRussia u-Vladimir Putin nge-Ukraine ngaphandle kokufaneleka.
Lokho amazwe aseNtshonalanga emhlabeni wonke akubona njengokulwela izindinganiso zentando yeningi akunawo amandla phakathi kobushiqela baseGulf, futhi ukungqubuzana akubaqedi ngendlela efanayo njengoba kwenza abaholi ezinhlokodolobha zase-Europe.
I-Saudi Arabia, kanye ne-MBS ikakhulukazi, bakhungathekile ikakhulukazi nge-flip-flop diplomacy yaseMelika: ukudayela emuva ubudlelwano ngeqhaza leNkosana yoMqhele ekubulaweni komlobi wephephandaba iWashington Post uJamal Khashoggi (okuphika i-MBS); wabe esecela ukuba anciphise ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela ngokushesha okulandelwa izicelo zokuwandisa.
Lokhu kungqubuzana kuholele ekutheni amaSaudis aqophe inqubomgomo ezithakazelweni zawo zikazwelonke futhi anciphise izidingo zaseMelika.
Ngesikhathi evakashele eSaudi ngoJulayi odlule, Umongameli waseMelika uJoe Biden wathi: “Ngeke sihambe sishiye isikhala esizogcwaliswa yiChina, iRussia, noma i-Iran.” Sengathi manje laba abanye bayasuka kuye.
Ngasohlangothini lweBeijing, ukungenelela kweChina eGulf kubonisa izidingo zayo, futhi ithuba lokuthatha isinyathelo lafika ngesikhathi esisodwa.
UXi wazisiza ngoba uyakwazi. Umholi waseShayina uyingozi.
Ukuphela kwakhe kungazelelwe kwemikhawulo enzima yobhubhane lwe-Covid-19 ekhaya kuyisibonelo esisodwa, kepha lolu wumqulu oyinkimbinkimbi wedayisi.
Ukulamula eMpumalanga Ephakathi kungaba isitsha esinoshevu, kodwa njengoba kungase kuzuze eChina, imithelela ebanzi yokuhleleka kwesifunda, ngisho nasemhlabeni wonke, mikhulu kakhulu futhi izozwakala iminyaka.
Kodwa-ke izimpawu zalokhu kuzamazama kanye nezinga lomthelela wako sekunezinyanga zibonakala obala. Ukwamukela kuka-Xi okuphakeme, okunokhaphethi obomvu e-Riyadh ngoDisemba odlule lapho evakashele khona okokuqala phesheya kwezilwandle ngemuva kokushiya inqubomgomo yakhe yasekhaya ethi “zero-Covid” yashukumisa amanzi.
Ngalolo hambo izikhulu zaseSaudi nezaseShayina zisayine izivumelwano eziningi ezibiza amashumi ezigidigidi zamaRandi.
UMnyango Wezangaphandle waseChina ukushayele ihlombe ukuvakasha kuka-Xi, wanaka ngokukhethekile iphrojekthi ethile yengqalasizinda: “I-China izojulisa ukubambisana kwezimboni nengqalasizinda neSaudi Arabia (futhi) ithuthukise intuthuko ye-China-Saudi Arabia (Jizan) Industrial Park.”
Iphrojekthi ye-Jizan, eyingxenye yohlelo lwase-China lwamabhande nomgwaqo, imemezela ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu echwebeni lasendulo loLwandle Olubomvu, okumanje lingelesithathu ngobukhulu e-Saudi.
IJizan ilele eduze komngcele neYemen, inkundla yempi yombango echitha igazi kanye nempi yama-proxy phakathi kweRiyadh neTehran kusukela ngo-2014, okuqubule lokho iNhlangano Yezizwe Ezikuchaze njengenhlekelele embi kakhulu yabantu emhlabeni.
Okuphawulekayo kusukela ngokuvakasha kuka-Xi, ukuhlasela okuyisiqephu kwamavukela-mbuso e-Houthi esekelwa yi-Iran eJizan kwehlile.
Kuneminye imiphumela futhi: izinhlelo zokukhuphula ukuphathwa kweziqukathi zikaJizan zibeka iSaudi emqhudelwaneni omkhulu namachweba wesitsha se-UAE futhi okungenzeka kubangele omunye umbango wesifunda, njengoba i-MBS ishayela ukuba ngamandla esifunda, iqhwaga indima ye-UAE njengesizinda sesifunda samabhizinisi omhlaba.
U-Xi uzoba nentshisekelo yokubona iSaudi Arabia kanye ne-UAE zichuma, kodwa iSaudi inguzakwethu omkhulu kunayo yonke enekhono eliphezulu lomnotho womhlaba wonke futhi, okubalulekile, ithonya elikhulu lezenkolo emhlabeni wamaSulumane.
Lapho i-UAE ne-Saudi ziqondana khona ngokuqinile kugwema ukungqubuzana okuqondile ne-Tehran.
Ukuhlasela kwe-drone ebulalayo ku Abu Dhabi ngasekupheleni konyaka odlule kwafunwa amaHouthis, ngaphambi kokuthi amavukelambuso ayihoxise ngokushesha. Kepha akekho osole esidlangalaleni abaxhasi beHouthis eTehran.
Ukumiswa kwezikhali okwake kwanyakaza eYemen manje nakho kubukeka kubhekela ezingxoxweni zokuthula, mhlawumbe enye inkomba yamandla ethonya laseChina esifundeni.
I-Beijing yazi kahle ukuthi impi eqhubekayo phezu kwePersian Gulf ingabiza izithakazelo zayo zezentengiselwano – esinye isizathu esenza ukuthi ukusondelana kweSaudi / Iran kube nengqondo kuXi.
I-Iran isola iSaudi ngokudala imibhikisho emikhulu yasemgwaqweni emadolobheni nasemadolobheni kusukela ngoSepthemba.
ISaudi iyakuphika lokho kubekwa icala, kodwa lapho i-Iran ihambisa ama-drones nemicibisholo yebanga elide eduze nogu lwayo lwaseGulf naseSaudi, uRiyadh wacela abangani bayo ukuthi bacele uTehran ukuthi ehle. I-Russia ne-China benza, usongo lwaphela.
UTehran, naphezu kwemizamo yokuxhumana yase-US, uvala futhi amandla ezikhali zenuzi futhi i-MBS yaseSaudi ibhalwe phansi ithi izoqinisekisa ukulingana, “uma i-Iran yenza ibhomu lenuzi, sizolandela ngokushesha okukhulu.”
Ngasekupheleni kwesonto eledlule izikhulu zaseMelika zathi iSaudi ifuna iziqinisekiso zokuphepha zase-US futhi isize ukuthuthukisa uhlelo lwenuzi njengengxenye yesivumelwano sokwenza ubudlelwano bube bujwayelekile no-Israel, isitha esisobala sama-Ayatollah ase-Iran.
Impela, ngenkathi uNobhala Wezwe waseMelika u-Antony Blinken evakashele kwa-Israel ngasekupheleni kukaJanuwari, ekhathazekile ngokwanda kwenani lokufa kwabantu basePalestine ngonyaka onodlame esifundeni, ukwanda kwezindawo zokuhlala kanye nezinguquko eziyimpikiswano kuNdunankulu wakwa-Israel uBenjamin Netanyahu ukhulume noBlinken “ngokwandisa umbuthano. ukuthula,” kanye nokwenza ngcono ubudlelwano nomakhelwane abangama-Arab, kuhlanganise neSaudi Arabia.
Kepha njengoba iSaudi ibonakala isondela eTehran, umsebenzi kaNetanyahu usanda kuba nzima. Ngenkathi bobabili iSaudi ne-Israel bephikisana ngokuqinile ne-Iran ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi, nguNetanyahu kuphela obonakala ekulungele ukubhekana neTehran.
“Umgomo wami ukwenza konke okusemandleni akwa-Israel ukuvimbela i-Iran ekutholeni izikhali zenuzi,” kusho umholi wakwa-Israel etshela uBlinken.
I-Riyadh ithanda i-diplomacy. Muva nje ngesonto eledlule ungqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseSaudi uthe: “Kubaluleke kakhulu … ukuthi sithole kanye nenye indlela yokuqinisekisa uhlelo lwenuzi (lwase-Iran) lwabantu.”
Ngokuthuthukisa ubudlelwano neTehran, uthe, “singakwenza kucace kubantu base-Irani ukuthi lokhu akukhona nje ukukhathazeka kwamazwe akude kodwa futhi kukhathaza omakhelwane bawo.”
Iminyaka eminingi yilokhu iMelika eyakwenza, njengokwenza isivumelwano senuzi sase-Iran, noma i-JCPOA, ngo-2015.
U-Xi usekele leso sivumelwano, amaSaudis akasifuni, i-Iran ayikaze ithembele, ukuhoxa kuka-Biden owandulele uDonald Trump kuqinisekise ukwesaba kwe-Iran futhi kwavala isiphetho sayo, naphezu kwezingxoxo eziqhubekayo zokuthi izikhulu zaseMelika zihlale etafuleni futhi.
I-Iran iye yagijima phambili okwamanje, yeqa kakhulu imingcele ye-JCPOA yokunothisa i-uranium futhi yakhiqiza cishe izinto ezisezingeni lezikhali.
Okubi kakhulu ngeWashington ukuthi ifa likaTrump lokuhoxa ku-JCPOA lonakalise imibono yamazwe ngamazwe ngokuzibophezela kwe-US, ukuqhubeka nokuxoxisana. Zonke lezi zimo mhlawumbe zabonisa uXi ukuthi siyeza isikhathi sakhe sokuhola ekuxoxisaneni komhlaba wonke.
Kodwa-ke umholi waseShayina ubonakala ekwamukela lokho uNetanyahu angeke akwenze nokuthi yini i-diplomacy yase-US engakwazi ukukuvimbela: ukuthi maduze, kunokuba kamuva, i-Iran izoba nesikhali senuzi. Ngakho-ke, u-Xi kungenzeka ukuthi ukhuthaza ukuhlangana kweSaudi-Iran njengothango olumelene nalolo suku.
Ngakho-ke uNetanyahu ubukeka ehlukanisiwe futhi umholi wakwa-Israel, osevele engaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu yasekhaya ngenxa yokungezwani nabantu basePalestine kanye nemibhikisho emikhulu yakwa-Israel mayelana nezinguquko ezihlongozwayo zezobulungiswa, manje usebhekene nokucabanga kabusha okukhulu ngokuphepha kwesifunda.
Ukuqagela okusebenzayo kobukhosi besifunda baseMelika kuphukile, futhi umlingani omkhulu kaNetanyahu manje akasenangqondo njengoba edinga. Kodwa ukuthi kungakanani kusekude ukuthi kucace.
Akuyona i-knockout, kodwa ukushaywa kwamathumbu, eWashington. Ukuthi u-Xi usibala kanjani isimo akucaci futhi. I-US ayiqediwe, kude nayo, kodwa inciphile, futhi amandla womabili ahlangana ngendlela ehlukile manje.
Ngasekuqaleni kwale nyanga, umholi waseShayina wenze ukuphawula okuqondile okungajwayelekile esola i-US ngokuhola umkhankaso omelene neChina futhi idale umaye omkhulu wasekhaya.
“Amazwe aseNtshonalanga aholwa yi-United States asiqukethe futhi asicindezela ngayo yonke indlela, okulethe izinselelo ezinkulu ezingakaze zibonwe ekuthuthukisweni kwethu,” kusho u-Xi etshela iqembu labeluleki bakahulumeni abamele amabhizinisi azimele eceleni komhlangano wezomthetho waminyaka yonke e-United States. E-Beijing.
Ngaleso sikhathi, uBiden uchaze ubudlelwano be-US-China besikhathi esizayo ngokuthi “ukuncintisana hhayi ukulwa,” futhi usezakhele inqubomgomo yakhe yezangaphandle mayelana nemigomo yokumela intando yeningi.
Kuyamangaza ukuthi u-Xi, noma uKhamenei, noma i-MBS abakhathazwa yizinkinga zokuziphatha ezithinta iBiden. Lena inselelo enkulu umongameli wase-US axwayise ngayo, futhi manje isifikile. Enye indlela yomhlaba, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kwenzekani e-Ukraine.
