Riaan 
Inguqulo yale ndaba yaqala ukuvela ku-CNN Business’ Ngaphambi kwe-newsletter ye-Bell. Hhayi obhalisile? Ungabhalisa lapho ke. Ungalalela inguqulo yomsindo yencwadi yezindaba ngokuchofoza isixhumanisi esifanayo.
I-New York
CNN
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Ngemuva kokuthi iSilicon Valley Bank kanye neBhange Lesignesha behlulekile, uhulumeni wase-US ungene ngesinyathelo esingajwayelekile sokuhlenga amakhasimende, amanye awo abambe izigidi eziningi zamaRandi kumadiphozithi angenamshwalense ebengeke aqedwe.
Kodwa icebo lesibili, mhlawumbe elibaluleke kakhulu lokuhlenga selilahlekile kakhulu engxoxweni yomphakathi: Uhlelo Lokubolekwa Kwesikhathi Sebhange Le-Fed. Izazi zezomnotho ziyibize ngokuthi ithuluzi elibalulekile ukuvimbela elinye ibhange elifana ne-SVB ekuhlulekeni.
Nakhu okudingeka ukwazi mayelana nohlelo lokuzinzisa oluphuthumayo lwe-Fed.
Kwenzenjani?
I-Fed ithi idale i-BTLP ukuze inikeze “umthombo owengeziwe wemali etholakalayo uma kuqhathaniswa nezibambiso ezisezingeni eliphezulu, okuqeda isidingo sesikhungo sokuthengisa ngokushesha izibambiso ngezikhathi zokucindezeleka.”
Kunezingxenye ezintathu ezibalulekile zalolu hlelo olusha.
Esokuqala yimali mboleko elihlinzeka ngayo emabhange.
Izikhungo zezezimali zizokwazi ukuboleka ukheshi ku-Federal Reserve Bank yazo kuze kube unyaka owodwa zisebenzisa amabhondi, izibambiso ezixhaswe yi-mortgage kanye nezinye izinhlobo zezikweletu njengesibambiso. Lokho kusho ukuthi uma ibhange lidinga ukusheshisa ukheshi ukuze lihlangabezane nejubane lokuhoxiswa kwamakhasimende, lizokwazi.
Ingxenye yesibili yohlelo ukwazisa iMgcinimafa yebhange nezinye izibambiso ku-“par.”
Ukwenyuka kwezinga le-Fed kuye kwabukela phansi inani lamabhondi kaMgcinimafa amabhange athembele kuwo njengomthombo obalulekile wemali (ungafunda kabanzi ngalokho. lapha). Amabhange ase-US okwamanje ahlezi mayelana $620 billion ekulahlekeni okungafezeki kumabhondingokwe-FDIC – uma omunye wabo edinga ukufinyelela emalini eningi ngokushesha, kuzodingeka ayithengise ngokulahlekelwa – mhlawumbe ukulahlekelwa okukhulu, njengoba kwenza i-SVB ngesonto eledlule.
I-BTLP ihlose ukulungisa le nkinga ngokwazisa amabhondi asetshenziswa njengesibambiso semalimboleko kokuthi “par.” Uma ibhange liletha ibhondi eliyithenge ngo-$1,000 ebiza u-$600 kuphela manje, lisazothola ukheshi ongu-$1,000.
Ingxenye yesithathu yohlelo ihloselwe ukufaka ukuzethemba ohlelweni lwamabhange e-US. Lezi zimali mboleko zizoxhaswa ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25 evela kuMgcinimafa waseMelika. Uma ibhange lingakwazi ukukhokha imali ebolekiwe, uhulumeni uzokhokha.
Iyini injongo yohlelo?
I-BTLP ingxenye yengqondo kaDouglas Diamond noPhilip Dybvig, abawine uMklomelo KaNobel ngonyaka odlule (kanye nowayenguSihlalo we-Fed uBen Bernanke) ngomsebenzi wabo wokugijima emabhange kanye nendlela yokuwavimbela. Bathole ukuthi uma amakhasimende azi ukuthi imali efakwa ebhange ifakwe umshwalense, mancane amathuba okuthi ibhange lisebenze.
Yilokho lolu hlelo oluhlose ukukwenza: Uma amabhange ethengisa inani elikhulu lezimpahla eziphephe kakhulu njengeZimali-mboleko ngokulahlekelwa, kubonisa ukuthi asebenzise zonke ezinye izindlela zokuthola imali yokukhokha amakhasimende – futhi ahluleka. Uhlelo lwe-Fed lususa leso simo etafuleni, lunikeze amakhasimende asebhange iziqinisekiso zokuthi imali yawo iphephile futhi isekelwa Umgcinimafa wase-US.
Kubonakala sengathi iyasebenza. Izitokwe zamabhange zikhule kakhulu ngoLwesibili ngemuva kokwehla kwerekhodi lokugawulwa kwemithi ngoMsombuluko nangesonto eledlule.
Ukhona owake wayisebenzisa?
Asazi okwamanje! Kodwa sizobuya ngoMsombuluko ozayo. Yilapho i-Fed ikhipha ishidi layo lebhalansi lamasonto onke. Angeke abe khona amagama afakwe emalini ebolekiwe kodwa sizobona ukuthi yimalini ephume emabhange.
Kulabo abanesineke esengeziwe, i-Fed izokwenza amagama amabhange nokuthi yimalini abayiboleka esidlangalaleni ngonyaka owodwa ngemuva kokuphela kohlelo. Kungenzeka ukuthi ulinde isikhashana, uhlelo kulindeleke ukuthi luthathe unyaka, kodwa akukho lutho oluvimba i-Fed ukuthi ilunwebe unomphela.
Ingabe ukhona ozoyisebenzisa?
Yilapho izinto ziba nzima khona. Uma ibhange lithatha imali ebolekiwe ku-Fed, lisuke likhulumela phezulu liveza ubunzima bokuthola imali kubatshalizimali. Bamakwe nge-Scarlet Letter, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu seRSM uJoe Brusuelas sitshele i-CNN.
Kodwa i-Fed iyakwazi lokhu, uthe. Kwakuyinkinga evamile ngezinhlelo ezifanayo ezasungulwa ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezimali ka-2008.
Kungakho uBrusuelas esola ukuthi kungase kube khona ukuqondisa okwenziwa uMongameli we-New York Federal Reserve uJohn Williams kanye namanye amabhange amakhulu aseMelika. Lawo mabhange azoxhumanisa ukuthatha imali mboleko ye-Fed ngesikhathi esifanayo ngosuku olufanayo eceleni kwamabhange amancane. Ngaleyo ndlela isamba semali mboleko sizoba sikhulu kakhulu futhi sibe ne-amorphous, okwenza kube nzima kubatshalizimali ukucacisa ukuthi yimaphi amabhange aboleka ini.
Ima kancane, bengicabanga ukuthi i-Fed yenza imali ebiza kakhulu, hhayi ngaphansi.
Uqinisile, nakuba i-Fed ingeke ibize lokhu “ngokunciphisa inani” – uhlelo lokuthenga impahla eyayilusebenzise ukuze kuthuthukiswe umnotho ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba. Incamela “ukuthengwa kwempahla ngesilinganiso esikhulu.”
Isikhathi esingangonyaka manje i-Fed yenza i-quantitative tightening (QT) ukuze yehlise amazinga okwehla kwamandla emali okunamathelayo. Njengamanje bathengisa cishe amabhiliyoni angama-60 kuma-Treasuries njalo ngenyanga.
Lolu hlelo olusha lwenza okuphambene nalokho, lufaka imali ohlelweni lwamabhange. Kepha uBrusuelas uthi imali ebolekiwe eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25 zamaRandi iyona ezosusa kakhulu imiphumela yokuqiniswa. Lokho kufanelekile ukuvimbela ukusebenza kwebhange okumangalisayo okungase kuthuntubeze umnotho wonke, wengeza.
▸ I-US Producer Price Index, ekala lokho abahlinzeki abakhokhisa amabhizinisi, kulindeleke ukuthi ifike ku-5.4% unyaka nonyaka (yehle isuka ku-6% ngoJanuwari) kanye no-0.3% inyanga nenyanga (yehle isuka ku-0.7% ngoJanuwari).
I-PPI ingesinye sezikali ezibhekwe kakhulu zokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngoba inkomba ye-producer-centric ithwebula ukushintsha kwentengo phezulu komthengi, kwesinye isikhathi kubhekwa njengenkomba engaba khona eholayo yokuthi izintengo zingagcina zifike kanjani ezingeni lesitolo.
Abenzi bezinqubomgomo ze-Fed bazohlangana ngokulandelayo isonto kusukela manje, lapho kulindeleke ukuthi bakhuphule amanani ngenye ikota, ngokusho kwethuluzi le-CME Group’s FedWatch.
▸ Izitokwe zamabhange aseMelika ziphinde zanyuka ngoLwesibili, zaphinde zathola okunye ukulahlekelwa kwazo ngemva kokuwa kwamabhange amathathu ahlolwe izimakethe ngoMsombuluko.
Izitokwe zamabhange esifunda zihlangene: First Republic
(FRC) Ibhange liqede usuku ngo-27% ngemuva kokwehla kwerekhodi ngoMsombuluko. Izindleko zamasheya PacWest Bancorp
(PACW) inyuke ngo-34% kanye ne-Western Alliance
(WAL) amasheya azuze ngaphezu kuka-14%.
Amabhange amakhulu nawo enze inzuzo ngoLwesibili. JPMorgan Chase
(JPM) inyuke ngo-2.6%, iCitigroup
(C) ikhule ngo-6% kanye no-Wells Fargo
(WFA) inyuke ngo-4.6%.
Umbuzo uwukuthi ingabe amasheya asebhange angakwazi yini ukubambelela enzuzweni yawo noma uma uLwesibili bekuwukugxuma kwekati elifile embonini yonke.
“Amabhange anikezwe isaphulelo yi-Treasury ikhiqiza intengo ephansi, futhi izimakethe intengo ngenani lokugcina eliphansi kunalokho obekulindelekile evikini eledlule,” kusho uQuincy Krosby, oyisikhulu samasu omhlaba we-LPL Financial. “Kepha kule makethe eqhutshwa yizihloko, okuningi kuncike esitokweni semboni yamabhange ukubona uhlobo lwemali engenayo ukuphakamisa ukuthi okubi kuphelile ngempela.”
▸ Ukuthengiswa Kwezitolo kwase-US kwangoFebhuwari, okuyinkomba ebalulekile yezindleko zabathengi, nakho kuzophuma ngoLwesithathu ekuseni. Lokhu kusetshenziswa kwemali kubala iningi lemisebenzi yezomnotho yase-US futhi kubukwa kakhulu yi-Fed.
Abahlaziyi balindele ukwehla okuphawulekayo ngoFebhuwari, ukuthengiswa kwehle ngo-0.3% – ngenyanga edlule kubone inzuzo engu-3%. Kodwa kulo mnotho omubi-muhle onganikeza i-Wall Street isizathu sokugubha, kungasho ukuthi i-Fed izozizwa inengcindezi yokunciphisa izinga layo lokuhamba ngezinyawo.
Ezinye izindaba ezimbi zomkhakha wamabhange. Izindleko zamasheya Credit Suisse iphahlazeke ngaphezu kuka-20% irekhodi eliphansi ngemuva kokuthi umnikazi wamasheya omkhulu ebonakale enqabela ukunikeza enye imali umbolekisi waseSwitzerland obhekene nezinkinga.
Engxoxweni abe nayo neBloomberg, usihlalo weSaudi National Bank uthe ngeke kwenyuse isibalo sawo kumashonisa waseSwitzerland.
UCredit Suisse uthe embikweni wabo waminyaka yonke uthole ukuthi “ukulawula kwangaphakathi kweqembu ekubikweni kwezimali akuphumelelanga” ngoba yehlulekile ukuhlonza ubungozi obungase bube khona ezitatimendeni zezimali.
UHanna Ziady we-CNN imibiko ukuthi izambulo ziza ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ngemva kokuba ibhange libambezele ukushicilelwa kombiko wonyaka ngemva kombuzo wehora leshumi nanye ovela ku-US Securities and Exchange Commission mayelana nezitatimende zokuhamba kwemali ka-2019 no-2020.
Ibhodi liphethe ngokuthi “ubuthakathaka bezinto ezibonakalayo bungase bubangele izitatimende eziyiphutha zamabhalansi e-akhawunti noma ekudalulweni okungaholela ekusetshenzisweni kabi kwezitatimende zezimali zonyaka ze-Credit Suisse,” kusho umbiko wonyaka. I-Credit Suisse yenza ngokuphuthumayo “uhlelo lokulungisa” ukuze kuqiniswe izilawuli.
