Hiltzik: I-Fed ayikwazi ukukhokhela elinye iphutha

Uhlelo lweFederal Reserve lwathintwa ngasekupheleni kuka-2021 lapho lumemezela izimpawu zokukhuphuka kwamandla emali ukuthi “luyadlula” futhi lwabambezeleka ukuthatha izinyathelo eziqinile zokwehlisa ukwenyuka kwamanani.

Ibhange elikhulu belilokhu ligijima kubagxeki balo kusukela ngaleso sikhathi. Ngaphansi kukasihlalo wayo, u-Jerome H. Powell, iqalise ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo elwa nokwehla kwamandla emali okushube kakhulu eminyakeni engaphezu kwengu-40 njengokungathi izovala impendulo yayo yasekuqaleni kulokho okubonakala kuwukukhuphuka kwamanani cishe unyaka wonke.

Nokho, kule nqubo, i-Fed yenze umonakalo emalini ebhalansi yasebhange engase ibe nemiphumela emibi ehlala njalo ekukhuleni komnotho kunalokho obekungazwakala ngisho nasenkathini eqhubekayo yokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu.

Isivuno yinkinga yasebhange ebangelwa ukwehluleka ngoMashi 10 kweSilicon Valley Bank, noma i-SVB, kanye nokugijima okulandelayo kwamanye amabhange amaningana e-US naphesheya kwezilwandle okucatshangwa ukuthi adinga ukutakulwa.

Njengamanje, njengoba izikhulu ze-Fed zilungiselela umhlangano wezinsuku ezimbili lapho zizonquma khona ukuthi zingakhuphula amanani noma ngamanani, okulindelekile emphakathini obukele i-Fed ukuthi ibhange lizonciphisa ijubane lokunyuka kwalo kwakamuva ngokumemezela a ukunyuka kwengxenye yesine yephesenti kuphela ngoLwesithathu. Lokho kuzoletha ukukhuphuka kwayo okuphelele kumaphesenti angama-4.75 esikhathini esingangonyaka owodwa.

Abanye osomnotho nongoti benqubomgomo baluleka ngokuthi leli bhange akumele linyuse ama-rates nhlobo kuleli sonto, funa lifake umnotho ekuwohlokeni.

Kunezizathu ezimbalwa: Ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Fed sekuvele kulethe izimpawu zokuntengantenga komnotho, amabhizinisi nemindeni ebigcwele imali ngonyaka odlule ngenxa yosizo lukahulumeni ichithe imali yayo, kanti inkinga yasebhange cishe izosheshisa. amabhange ukuthi aqinise izindinganiso zawo zokuboleka imali, okungezelele omunye umoya ekukhuleni komnotho.

“Ukushaqeka kwezinga lenzalo kusekhona, … futhi sinezinkinga zamabhange phezulu, futhi sinesamba esincane sokulondoloza,” kusho u-Ian C. Shepherdson, isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu se-Pantheon Macroeconomics, ngesikhathi sokusakazwa kwewebhu. UMsombuluko. “Ngisalelwe ubusuku obubodwa nje bokuqwasha ukuthi ngithathe isibikezelo sami esiyinhloko kusukela ekukhuleni kuye ekuwohlokeni komnotho, futhi uma lokho kuwumphumela okungenzeka kakhulu, kungani i-Fed ingaqhubeka nokukhuphula amanani?” UShepherdson wathi uma ekwazi ukweluleka ngokuqondile izikhulu ze-Fed, wayezozitshela: “Ngicela ningakwenzi.”

OwayenguSihlalo we-FDIC u-Sheila Bair, owayekhona ngesikhathi sezinkinga zamabhange ngo-2008, wengeza izwi lakhe ekwayeni ethi. inhlolokhono ngeSonto nabakwa-CNN. “I-Fed idinga ukuthi ime kancane futhi ihlole umthelela ogcwele wezenzo zayo kuze kube manje ngaphambi kokukhuphula amanani amafushane,” kusho yena. “Uma bema kancane, kuzoba nomthelela omuhle ezimakethe.”

Ukukhathazeka kosomnotho mayelana nesilinganiso nesivinini sokunyuka kwezinga le-Fed sekwakhiwe izinyanga. Lowo owayengusomnotho we-Fed uClaudia Sahm sekuyisikhathi eside exwayisa ngokuthi “ukwenyuka kwamanani amakhulu nokushesha kwe-Fed ngonyaka odlule kuzokwephula okuthile ezimakethe zezimali,” njengoba abhala engosini yakhe ngesonto eledlule. “Ukuwohloka kwe-SVB kanye nemiphumela yokutheleleka okungenzeka ihambisana nomthethosivivinywa.”

Kunesizathu sokukholelwa ukuthi impi yokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali isinqotshiwe kakhulu, nakuba ngezindleko ezithile zomnotho. Abashayeli ababili ababalulekile bokwenyuka kwentengo ngo-2022 – ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kawoyela ngemuva kokuhlasela kweRussia ngoFebhuwari 2022 e-Ukraine, kanye nobunzima bokuthengiswa kwezimboni zomhlaba wonke njengoba ukuvalwa kobhubhane kuphelile futhi isidingo sikhuphuka – akusasebenzi.

Ukubolekwa kwebhizinisi kuyehla, amanani ezindlu asalokhu ehla, ukukhushulwa kwamaholo kuyehla futhi umkhiqizo wokukhiqiza uyancipha. Lawa mamethrikhi wonke akhomba ukwehla kwe-deflationary.

Ubunzima be-Fed ekulawuleni ukuntengantenga kwezomnotho onyakeni odlule buvela kancane izibopho zayo eziningi ezingahambelani.

Uma sikhuluma ngokomnotho, okubaluleke kakhulu kulokhu okwaziwa ngokuthi “igunya elikabili” — ukugqugquzela ukuqashwa okuphezulu nokuzinza kwentengo. Lokhu kusho ukusebenzisa igunya layo phezu kwenqubomgomo yezimali ukuze kunqandwe ukwehla kwamandla emali nokugqugquzela “izinga eliphezulu lomsebenzi ukuthi umnotho ungasimama ngokuhamba kwesikhathi,” ngokwamazwi eFederal Reserve Bank yaseSt.

Lezo zinhloso zivame ukubonwa njengokuphelelisana, ngoba ukwehla kwamandla emali nokusimama okuqinile kuvame ukusekela ukukhula komsebenzi. Kunezikhathi lapho zingashayisana khona, njengalapho izinqubomgomo ezinolaka zokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali ziholela ekwenyukeni kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi. Lelo yithemba abagxeki be-Fed abaliphakamisile ngesikhathi sokukhuphuka kwezinga elinolaka ngonyaka odlule, obekuhloswe ngalo ukwehlisa ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokunciphisa umnotho, osekuqalile ukukhiqiza ukudilizwa kwabantu abaningi kubuchwepheshe obuphezulu nakweminye imikhakha.

Bese kuba neqhaza le-Fed njengomlawuli omkhulu weningi lohlelo lwamabhange, ikakhulukazi izinkampani eziphethe amabhange (eziphethe cishe wonke amabhange okuhweba anoma yimuphi usayizi) kanye namabhange amaningi aqashwe uhulumeni. Iqhaza lebhange elikhulu lapha ukuvikela “ukuphepha nempilo” yamabhange ngamanye kanye nohlelo lwamabhange lulonke.

Ngonyaka odlule, imisebenzi ye-Fed njenge-inflation fighter kanye nomlawuli webhange bekunezinhloso ezihlukene. Kusukela ngoMashi odlule, yenza umthwalo wokuqala waba yinto eza kuqala kuyo, ngaphandle kokubukisisa kakhulu ukuthi izinga layo likhuphuka kanjani – ijubane lokunyuka elisheshayo kusukela lelo elasungulwa nguSihlalo weFed uPaul Volcker ezinyangeni eziyi-17 ngo-1979-80 – bekuzothinta ukuphepha nomsindo wamabhange.

I-Fed ibonakala ingakunaki ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani kuzodala inkinga yamabhange ehluke ngokuphelele ezindabeni ezaletha uhlelo lwamabhange onqenqemeni lokuwohloka ngesikhathi sezinkinga zezimali zika-2007-09.

Khona-ke, ukuqhuma kwebhamuza lezindlu e-US kwalahlekisela inani lemali mboleko kanye nezibambiso ezixhaswe yimali ebolekiwe amabhange ayeziphethe, iningi lakhona ebelikade leqiwe kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni.

Ikhambi elabekwa yiCongress kanye ne-Fed bekuwukuphoqa amabhange ukuthi akhe kabusha ama-cushions awo enhloko-dolobha ngokunciphisa ukuthi angabolekisa ngamalini njengenqwaba yobunikazi bokulingana namadiphozithi, kanye nokwenza ngcono ikhwalithi yemali mboleko ayikhiphile. Phakathi kwezinye izinto, imakethe ye-subprime mortgage – ukuboleka abathengi bezindlu abangeke bafanelekele ukubolekwa kwempahla ngaphansi kwemibandela yendabuko – konke kwaqedwa.

Ngalelo zinga, amabhange ase-US aphile kahle kakhulu namuhla kuneminyaka eyi-15 edlule. Lokho kwakuhlanganisa i-Silicon Valley Bank ngisho nangesikhathi sokuwa nokuthathwa kwayo yi-Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ngoMashi 10.

Nokho, izimpande zenkinga yamanje zihluke ngokuphelele. Inkinga ye-SVB kwakungeyona imalimboleko eyingozi noma izimpahla ezimbi. Cishe amabhiliyoni angama- $ 194 wezimpahla ezibambekayo ngasekupheleni kuka-2022 afaka cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-116 e-US kanye nezibambiso zikahulumeni wangaphandle zokuphepha okungangabazeki, kanye nemali ecishe ibe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama- $ 14 kanye nenye imali ebolekiwe engama- $ 74.3 billion.

Lokho bekufanele ngabe kungaphezu kokwanele ukumboza idiphozithi yebhange engu-$173.1 billion. Inkinga, njengoba sike sabika ngaphambili, ukuthi ibhange lathenga iningi lalezo zibambiso zikahulumeni ngesikhathi esiphezulu semakethe yebhondi, lapho amanani enzalo ayesondele kuqanda futhi amanani ebhondi ngenxa yalokho ayengase ehle ndawo. Ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, base bebiza imali encane kakhulu kunaleyo eyayikhokhelwe yibhange.

Nokho, lokho bekungafanele kube nendaba enkulu. Izibambiso ezigcinwe zihlukaniswe izigaba ezimbili – cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25.3 abhalwe ukuthi “akhona ukudayiswa,” okusho ukuthi ukwehla kwenani lawo kufanele kudalulwe ku-balance sheet yebhange, kanye nama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-90.6 “njengoba lugcinwe ekuvuthweni.”

Imithetho yokubala ivumela lokhu kwakamuva ukuthi kukalwe ngenani lezindleko, ngoba kuyaqondakala ukuthi uma sekufinyelele izinsuku zabo zokuvuthwa kuzofaneleka inani elikhokhiwe, kanye nenzalo. Ekupheleni konyaka odlule, ukulahlekelwa okungakafezeki kuphothifoliyo ebanjelwe ekuvuthweni – okungabaluleka kuphela uma izibambiso kufanele zithengiswe ngaphambi kokuba zivuthwe, zifinyelele cishe ku-$15.2 billion.

Isici esingalindelekile esibangela ukuwa kwebhange ukuthi imali efakwe kulo yayigxile kakhulu emkhakheni owodwa webhizinisi – ukuqala okusekelwe yibhizinisi ku-high-tech kanye ne-biotech. Lapho abatshalizimali bebhizinisi beluleka izinkampani zabo zephothifoliyo ukuthi zikhiphe amadiphozithi abo ku-SVB, okwenze ukuthi kuphume imali engaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-42 zamaRandi ngosuku olulodwa, ukulahlekelwa okushunyekiwe kwaba yinto efanele.

Lesi yisimo i-Fed ngokusobala eyasishaya indiva. Kungaba nesiqiniseko sokuthi i-SVB, namanye amabhange anamaphepha ebhalansi afanayo, ahlangabezana nezindinganiso ezinkulu ezabekwa ngemva Kokuwohloka Okukhulu Komnotho. Kodwa ayizange iqaphe ngokwanele umphumela ohlangene wokwehla kwenani lempahla yesikhathi eside kanye nokundiza okungazelelwe kwamadiphozithi.

I-Fed yayilwa nempi yokugcina, lapho imali ebolekiwe eyingozi, eyeqile yaletha uhlelo lwamabhange emadolweni, kodwa hhayi impi ekhona, lapho isitha bekuwumkhankaso waso wokukhulisa amanani enzalo (futhi ngaleyo ndlela iphahlaze amanani amabhondi esikhathi eside. ) ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali.

I-Fed, Treasury Department kanye ne-FDIC baphathe okuwukuphela komuthi abacabanga ukuthi unengqondo kulo mongo. Bavumela amabhange adonsa kanzima ukuthi aboleke ku-Fed ngokwazisa izibambiso zabo zesikhathi eside njengesibambiso ngamavelu abo okuvuthwa. (I-FDIC ivumile futhi ukuvikela ibhalansi egcwele yediphozithi kulawa mabhange, kunokuba ifike ku-$250,000 kuphela ngofake imali ngayinye, njengendlela yokunqanda ukundiza kwamadiphozithi kuwo wonke ngaphandle kwamabhange amakhulu.)

Ukwenyuka okwengeziwe kwezinga le-Fed ngoLwesithathu, nokho, kuzokwenza yonke inqubo ibe nzima kakhulu. Izibambiso zamabhange ezibambile zizokwehla inani kakhulu, futhi abafaka imali bangase bakhathazeke kakhulu ngokugcina imali yabo emabhange aphakathi noma amancane.

Ukusebenza kwe-Fed ngonyaka odlule kube uchungechunge lwamaphutha asebenzisanayo, azihlanganisayo. Ekuqaleni, ibhange elikhulu kanye noSihlalo u-Powell babukela phansi ubude nokuqina kokwehla kwamandla emali (futhi abazange baqonde izimbangela zako). Base besabela ngokweqile ngokushayela amanani aphezulu futhi ashesha kunalokho umnotho obungasimama, ngaphandle kokuma kancane ukuze bahlole ukuthi izenzo zabo zisebenza kanjani.

Khonamanjalo, basuse amehlo abo ebholeni lokulawula ibhange. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi amabhange anosayizi we-SVB anikezwe ukukhululwa ngo-2018 emithethweni eminingi yangemva kokuwohloka komnotho, okuhlanganisa igunya lokubhekana “nokuhlolwa kokucindezeleka” okungenzeka kubonise ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamazinga enzalo kuzolithinta kanjani ibhalansi yayo. Kodwa akukho lutho oluvimbe i-Fed ekwenzeni izinqumo zayo siqu mayelana nempilo ye-SVB. Ayizange.

“I-fiasco ‘eyedlulayo’ yayiyi-fiasco yawo wonke umuntu,” kusho u-Shepherdson. “Isithunzi se-fed ngokwesikhungo kanye nesithunzi sikaPowell mathupha sithathe igxathu elikhulu ezinhlangothini zombili zenkundla, kusukela kwabezindaba nasezimakethe, futhi ngeke baphinde benze iphutha…. Kungaba iphutha ukukhuphula amanani kuleli sonto, futhi izindleko zokunganyusi kuleli sonto ziphansi kakhulu.”