Riaan Ukudlulela esigabeni sesi-5 nesesi-6 sokucinywa kukagesi kunomthelela omkhulu ekukhuleni kwe-SA. Investec ibheka ukuthi lokhu kusho ukuthini emikhakheni eyahlukene – futhi ibheke ezinye izixazululo ezingaba khona.
Kusukela enkulumweni kaMongameli Cyril Ramaphosa eNkulumo Yesimo Sezwe kuye ku-Indaba Yezimayini yakamuva, kuya ezibuyekezweni ezivela ezinkampanini ezisohlwini, umlayezo ucacile – ukucinywa kukagesi okuqhubekayo kwabantu baseNingizimu Afrika sekube yisithiyo esikhulu ekukhuleni nasekungeniseni inzuzo ezinkampanini zaseNingizimu Afrika.
Uma kuhlangene nomthelela wokuwohloka kwengqalasizinda yezokuthutha yaseNingizimu Afrika, ukucinywa kukagesi kubukela phansi ikhono lezwe lokuqhubeka nokusimama ekuvalweni kwe-Covid-19, njengoba izinga lenzalo likhuphuka ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamandla emali.
Njengoba isici sokutholakala kwamandla ka-Eskom (umehluko phakathi kokutholakala okuphezulu kanye nakho konke ukungatholakali) kwehle kwafinyelela ku-50.4% ngoZibandlela, okwehlisa amazinga okucishwa kukagesi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi (akuzange kube nezinsuku ngaphandle kokucishwa kukagesi ngo-2023 kuze kube manje). Kodwa imuphi umthelela emikhakheni eyahlukene okungenzeka ube nayo, nasemnothweni jikelele?
U-Ayan Ghosh, usomaqhinga wokutshala izimali kwa-Investec, wenze umsebenzi othile ngalesi sihloko.
Silindele ukuthi i-GDP yangempela yaseNingizimu Afrika ikhule ngo-0.3%, nobungozi benani eliphansi ngisho nangaphezulu, ngenxa yomthelela oqhubekayo wokucishwa kukagesi, kanye nobunzima begridi njengokukhathazeka okubalulekile ekukhuleni kokuthengwa kukagesi.
Ngokwezilinganiso zakamuva zeReserve Bank, ukucinywa kukagesi kube nomthelela omubi ka-2.1% ku-GDP yekota ngekota yesithathu yonyaka odlule, njengoba ezolimo, amahlathi, kanye nokudoba kube nomthelela omkhulu. Izilinganiso zekota yesine azikakakhishwa, kodwa umthelela ungase ube phezulu, njengoba ukucishwa kukagesi kwenzeke kuzo zonke izinsuku ngaphandle kwezintathu phakathi nekota yokugcina yonyaka.
Ukusakazwa kwezindaba kwakamuva kuveze eminye yemithelela emnothweni nasezimbonini ezithile, ikakhulukazi lapho isigaba sesi-5 nesesi-6 sesiqalisiwe.
Umthelela emkhakheni wezimayini
Ukukhiqizwa kwezimayini, isibonelo, kwehle ngo-3.7% engxenyeni yesine yowezi-2022. Engqungqutheleni yezezimayini esanda kwenzeka eKapa, abamele umkhakha we-platinum baqaphele ukuthi bakwazile ukulawula umthelela wokucishwa kukagesi kwaze kwaba ku-level 6, kodwa bazoba yisizinda somnotho. inkinga enkulu emva kwalokho, ngengozi yokuvalwa kweshaft nokulahleka kwemisebenzi.
Izimvula ezinamandla ngekota yesine nangoFebhuwari zengeze izinselelo amafemu ezimayini abhekene nazo. NgokoMkhandlu wezokuMbiwa Phansi, lo mkhakha ubhekane kahle nale nkinga yokucisha ugesi, njengoba abavukuzi bekufuneka abakwa-Eskom behlise isidingo sikagesi ngo-15%, ngesikhathi u-Eskom eqala ukucisha ugesi ngezikhathi ezithile ku-Stage 5 kanye ne-Stage 6 ezweni lonke ngasekupheleni konyaka odlule.
Umthelela kwezolimo
Khonamanjalo, ukucishwa kukagesi kungaba nomthelela ekukhiqizweni kokudla kwaseNingizimu Afrika, ezokuthutha kanye nokugcinwa kwazo. Ngokwe-Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), ukucishwa kukagesi okuqhubekayo sekuwulimazile ukukhiqizwa. Isazi Esiyinhloko Sezomnotho sase-Agbiz u-Wandile Sihlobo wabhala ngoJanuwari ukuthi ukucishwa kukagesi kunemithelela emibi ezindaweni eziningi: Izitshalo zasensimini, izithelo nemifino ethembele ekuniseleni.
“Cishe u-20% wommbila, u-15% kabhontshisi wesoya, u-34% umoba, kanye nengxenye kakolweni okhiqizwa ngaphansi kokunisela,” kuphawula uSihlobo.
Inyama ebomvu, izinkukhu, izingulube, uvolo kanye nokukhiqizwa kobisi, konke okudinga amandla aqhubekayo emisebenzini yabo evamile.
Imisebenzi esezingeni eliphansi efana nokugaya, amabhikawozi, amadela, ukucubungula iwayini, ukupakisha, nokukhiqizwa komgomo wezilwane, ibhekana nezinselele ezifanayo.
“Amabhizinisi ezolimo emazweni angaphandle, ikakhulukazi lawo anemikhiqizo ezwela kakhulu ukubambezeleka, njengezithelo, inyama ebomvu, newayini, nawo akhathazekile ngemisebenzi yasethekwini, ngenhlanhla engazange ithinteke kakhulu,” kusho u-Agbiz. “Kuphinde kube nokukhathazeka ngokuvikeleka kokudla njengoba umphumela wokucishwa kukagesi uzobonakala ngenani lemikhiqizo ezovunwa/ezokhiqizwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ezinyangeni ezizayo ngenxa yokuncipha kwesikhathi ezigabeni zokukhiqiza ezolimo.”
Ukudayisa
Izigaba 5 kanye ne-6 zokucishwa kukagesi kunomthelela omubi kakhulu kubathengisi, kuphawula uGhosh. Ngokwesibonelo, uShoprite ubesebenzisa u-R100 million ethenga udizili nyanga zonke ngesikhathi sokucishwa kukagesi kuka-Stage 6. UGhosh uthi ukuhlaziya kwakhe kuveza ukuthi inzuzo yezitolo ingase yehle cishe ngo-10% uma amaphethini amanje okucishwa kukagesi eqhubeka.
Impahla
Ngokufanayo, izinkampani zezakhiwo (eziningi zazo ezivezwe kakhulu emkhakheni wezokuthengisa) zivame ukubhekana nezinkinga ezifanayo nabathengisi. UGhosh uthi, ngokusho kuka-Attacq (umnikazi wendawo yaseWaterfall), isilinganiso sawo sokubiza udizili ngosuku sikhuphuka sifinyelele ku-R511 500 uma kwenzeka ukucisha kukagesi ku-Stage 6, sisuka ku-R170 526 ngosuku ngesikhathi sokucishwa kukagesi kweSigaba 2.
Nakuba ukukhiqizwa kwe-solar kuya ngokuya kuyinketho yezindawo zokuthenga, lokhu kuzothatha isikhathi. Isibonelo, ngokusho kwe-Redefine, i-solar generation okwamanje yenza cishe u-17.8% wokusetshenziswa kwayo kwamandla ezitolo ezinkulu.
FUNDA | Sibe nokucinywa kukagesi okuningi kuze kube manje kulo nyaka kunangonyaka ka-2022 wonke
Ukunakekela impilo
Khonamanjalo, amaqembu ezibhedlela nawo abhekana nezindleko ezikhuphukayo lapho kuqaliswa izigaba eziphakeme zokucishwa kukagesi. Enguqulweni yayo yakamuva yohwebo, iLife Healthcare ithe izindleko zayo zikadizili ezinyangeni ezine kuze kube sekupheleni kukaJanuwari zinyuke zafinyelela ku-R25 million, zisuka ku-R5 million esikhathini esiqhathaniswa nalesi esidlule. I-Life Healthcare iphawula, nokho, ukuthi lokhu akubalulekile ekwakhekeni kwayo kwezindleko.
Indlela eya phambili
Lezi zibalo ziyakhathaza futhi zingaba zimbi kakhulu uma uhulumeni, u-Eskom kanye nabanye ababambiqhaza bengakwazi ukwenza ngcono izimo kugridi futhi bengasheshi ukwethulwa kwemiklamo ezimele kagesi ukuze kwehliswe umthwalo ku-Eskom.
“Sibona ukwanda kwengozi yokucishwa kukagesi esikhathini esimaphakathi, kulandela ukwehluleka kwebhidi 6 yohlelo lwabakhiqizi bamandla avuselelekayo abazimele (REIPPP), ngokwemibiko yabezindaba,” kusho uGhosh.
“Nakuba i-Bid window 6 bekulindeleke ukuba kube yiyona enkulu kunazo zonke ethenga amandla kagesi, kwakhethwa abafake izicelo abahlanu kuphela ku-Q4 22, okukhiqiza isamba esingu-860MW, noma u-17% we-5.2GW egcwele.”
FUNDA | Ubuncane be-Stage 5 esikhathini esiningi sasebusika, amathuba ‘aphezulu kakhulu’ eSigabeni 8 – Eskom
Ekhuluma engosini yewebhu ye-Investec yakamuva, uRoger Baxter, inhloko yoMkhandlu Wezimbiwa, ugcizelele isidingo sokuhlelwa kabusha kwegridi, okudinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okusha okungaba izigidigidi eziyi-R120. “Lokhu kungenzeka kuphela uma uhulumeni esusa leli gciwane enkampanini kahulumeni ezimele,” usho kanje.
Kodwa-ke uBaxter uthe kukhona okuhle okuzovela ezinhlelweni ezihlongozwa nguMengameli uRamaphosa ukuxazulula inkinga kagesi.
Lokhu kufaka phakathi:
- Ukungenelela ekukhuphuleni imfuneko yokunikezwa kwamalayisensi ku-100MW okulandelwa ukuhoxiswa ngokuphelele kwemfuneko yamalayisensi kuholele ekuhlelweni kwamaphrojekthi okukhiqiza agxilile embonini yezimayini ye-10GW, enenani elilinganiselwa ku-R160 billion.
- Isikhathi sokugunyazwa kwezemvelo sehlisiwe saba yizinsuku ezingama-53 kumaphrojekthi afakwe kugazethi njengeProjekthi Yengqalasizinda Yamasu.
- Isikhathi sokubhaliswa ne-NERSA sehlisiwe sisuka ezinyangeni ezine saya esilinganisweni esiyizinsuku eziyi-14-19.
- Isikhathi sokuxhunywa kwegridi sehlisiwe sisuka ezinsukwini ezingama-210 saya ezinsukwini eziyi-105.
- Isikhathi sokugunyazwa kokusetshenziswa komhlaba kumaphrojekthi kagesi sehlisiwe sisuka ezinsukwini ezingama-90 siye kwezingama-30.
Imephu yomgwaqo eya ekupheleni kokucisha ukulayisha
UBaxter uphinde wavuma ukuthi bukhona ubungozi bokwenyuka kokucinywa kukagesi, njengoba sekungena ubusika. Kodwa-ke, ubelokhu enethemba lokuthi ukutholakala kukagesi kwa-Eskom kuzoba ngcono, njengoba sike sabona ebusika obudlule, lapho u-Eskom ebuyisela izinjini ezengeziwe zikagesi ebezikade zilungiswa.
Izinyathelo ezifana nesaphulelo sentela sokufakwa kwama-solar panel (ama-125% ezinkampani), okumenyezelwe kuSabelomali, sithemba futhi ukuthi zizosiza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuthi bathole amandla angabizi kakhulu futhi banciphise ukuthembela kugridi.
Ekugcineni, izinkinga zengqalasizinda yaseNingizimu Afrika zizodinga ukutshalwa kwezimali kwemboni ezimele kugesi (kanye nojantshi), okuhlanganisa nokusebenzisana komphakathi nezizimele (ama-PPP). Ucwaningo luphakamisa ukuthi, njalo ngo-10% ukwehla kwesamba semali emisiwe yesitoko esiphethwe nguhulumeni, izinga lokukhula kweNingizimu Afrika lingaba ngcono ngamaphesenti ama-2.
“Ngokunciphisa isabelo sikahulumeni sesamba semali esingaguquki sifinyelele ku-23%, kuhlanganiswe nezinye izinguquko ezibucayi (njengokubhekana nobugebengu kanye nokunciphisa ama-red tape), iNingizimu Afrika ingase ikhulise u-+5% ngonyaka wezinga lokukhula kwe-GDP,” kuphetha u-Baxter.
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