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Umbusi weBhange Lombuso laseNingizimu Afrika uLesetja Kganyago. Isithombe: Getty Images
In ngemuva kwengozi yakamuva yerandi, i IBhange Lombuso laseNingizimu Afrika‘s ikomidi lenqubomgomo yezimali (MPC) iphakamise i isilinganiso se-repo ngamaphuzu angu-50 – okuphawula uhambo lwe-10 olulandelanayo kusukela ngoNovemba 2021. Isinqumo sasivumelana ngazwi linye.
Ukwenyuka kubeke inqubomgomo endaweni enemikhawulo yezomnotho.
Ephendula imibuzo emayelana nobuhlungu bezimali isinqumo se-MPC esizoletha nakanjani, umphathi weBhange Lombuso. Lesetja Kganyago wathi: “Ingabe kubuhlungu? Yebo, ngesikhashana nje kungaba buhlungu. Kodwa kufanele sithathe ubuhlungu besikhashana ngenhloso yokuthola inzuzo yesikhathi eside.”
Uma amabhange amakhulu engaqini kahle futhi enza iphutha mayelana nomgudu wokwehla kwamandla emali, asengozini yokulahlekelwa ukwethenjwa emakethe, kusho uKganyago. “Ukwehluleka ukuthatha isinyathelo ngokumelene nokwehla kwamandla emali kuzosho ukuthi sishintsha kancane abampofu … Kufanele sinikeze lo muthi obabayo ukuze sigweme ukuhlinzwa noma ukuba segunjini labagula kakhulu.”
Ngaphambi kwesinqumo sangoLwesine, osomnotho bebelindele ukuthi i-MPC ithathe izinyathelo ezinqala, njengoba irandi lisanda kushaya phansi futhi lisamile. ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ukulandela ukuphahlazeka ngasekuqaleni kwale nyanga – okubukeka kugqugquzelwe ukungaboni ngaso linye neMelika mayelana nobudlelwano beNingizimu Afrika neRussia – irandi lisalokhu lintekenteke, lihweba ngaphezu kuka-R19.30 edoleni ngoLwesine ngaphambi kwesinqumo seMPC. Irandi lehle lafinyelela ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu lika-R19.63 ngemuva kwesinqumo.
I-MPC inyuse isiqalo sesibikezelo serandi safinyelela ku-R18.68 edolani, uma siqhathaniswa no-R17.80 ngesikhathi somhlangano wayo kaMashi. “Izimakethe zezimali kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziguquguquka futhi zizwela ukushaqeka kwe-idiosyncratic,” kusho isitatimende sayo.
Amazinga esilinganiso senzalo emazingeni ezomnotho amakhulu angaphezulu kwalokhu obekucatshangwa ngoMashi, kuphawula i-MPC.
“Izimo zezimali eziqinile emhlabeni wonke ziphakamisa iphrofayili yengozi yeminotho edinga imali yakwamanye amazwe, okuholela ezimalini ezibuthakathaka ngokuvamile. Uma kubhekwa izingozi ezikhuphukayo zokwehla kwamandla emali, izidingo ezinkulu zezimali zasekhaya nezangaphandle kanye nokuncishiswa kwenani lemali, ubuthakathaka obengeziwe bemali bubonakala bungenzeka.”
Naphezu kokwehla kwamandla emali kusalokhu kuphezulu ngendlela engathandeki, idatha ekhishwe kuleli sonto iphakamise ukuthi amanani ehla, ayancipha izinyanga eziyi-11 eziphansi ngo-April. Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lonyaka lehle ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelekile laya ku-6.8%, lehla lisuka ku-7.1 % ngoMashi, njengoba amanani okudla baqala ukwehla kusukela ekuphakameni kwabo kweminyaka eyi-14.
I-MPC nokho ibuyekeze isibikezelo sokwehla kwamandla emali entengo yokudla endaweni futhi, saya ku-10.8% (esikhuphuke sisuka ku-9.9%) ngo-2023. Lokhu ngokwengxenye kungenxa yomphumela osilele wezinga lokushintshisana elibuthaka naphezu kokuba amanani okudla ehla ngamadola. Ikomidi liphinde labuyekeza isibikezelo esisematheni sokwehla kwamandla emali safinyelela ku-6.2% (kusuka ku-6%) ngo-2023.
Lokhu kwenzeka naphezu kokwenyuka kwamanani kaphethiloli manje okulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngo-2%, kwehle kunesibikezelo sangaphambili sika-0.6%. Izibikezelo zentengo kagesi nazo zehle ngo-11.6% kulo nyaka.
Izingozi ekubukeni kokwehla kwamandla emali zicutshungulwa ngendlela ebheke phezulu, kusho i-MPC esitatimendeni sayo. “Naphezu kokwehla kwentengo yabakhiqizi kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okudla, ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke kusalokhu kuphezulu. Izimakethe zikawoyela emhlabeni jikelele kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziqinile, zibe sengozini enkulu emananini. Amanani kagesi namanye amanani alawulwayo ayaqhubeka nokuveza ubungozi obucacile besikhathi esifushane nesesikhathi esimaphakathi.”
Yaphinde yaphawula ukuthi ukucisha umthwalo ingase ibe nemiphumela ebanzi yamanani ezindlekweni zokwenza ibhizinisi nezokuphila, ikakhulukazi njengoba ukusetshenziswa kukadizili kukhuphuka. Ngokokubuyekezwa kwenqubomgomo yezimali yeReserve Bank, eshicilelwe ngenyanga edlule, ukucishwa kukagesi okunamandla kungase kwengezelele ekunyukeni okukhulu kwamandla emali (amaphesenti angu-0.5 ngo-2023).
Ngokuvumelana nalokho okulindelwe yi-MPC, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyinhloko kuzobuyela endaweni ephakathi nendawo yeBhange Lombuso eliqondiswe ku-3% kuya ku-6% ngekota yesibili ka-2025. Phambilini yayibikezela ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzobuyela endaweni emaphakathi ekupheleni kuka-2024.
Khonamanjalo, umnotho uqhubekile nokuzabalaza phakathi nenkinga enkulu kagesi, iReserve Bank elindele ukuthi izokwenyuka ngamaphesenti amabili ekukhuleni kwayo ngo-2023.
Ngokwesibikezelo esisha se-MPC, umnotho uzokhula ngama-0.3% nje kulo nyaka, obuyekezwe kancane kancane kunesibikezelo sangaphambilini sika-0.2%. “Ukukhula komnotho bekulokhu kuntengantenga isikhathi eside futhi amathuba okukhula awaqinisekisiwe,” kusho isitatimende se-MPC.
“Ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kanye nokwehliswa okuqhubekayo kokucinywa kukagesi, noma ukwanda kwamandla kagesi avela kwezinye izindawo, kungakhuphula kakhulu ukukhula.”
Izazi zezomnotho phambilini zixwayise ngokuthi ukuqhubeka nokwenyuka kwamanani ngemuva kwesinqumo seMPC ngoLwesine kungase kuholele ekutheni kuqiniswe kakhulu, kufake ingcindezi enkulu emnothweni wezwe.
I Inhlangano Yabasebenzi yaseNingizimu Afrika (I-Saftu) yatomula ngaphandle kwebhilidi leBhange Lombuso ePitoli ngoLwesine ikhalaza ngokunyuswa kwenzalo. Esitatimendeni esikhishwe ngaphambi kwaleli thimba, lo mfelandawonye ugxeke umgomo webhange lombuso wokubhekela izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali, osekubangele ukuthi inyuse izindleko zokuboleka nakuba isimo somnotho sinzima.
“Izwe lethu likhungethwe ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nobubha futhi noma yiliphi ibhange elikhulu elinomthwalo wemfanelo ngeke linyuse inzalo ukuze lidale ukwehla komnotho nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi. Indlela yenqubomgomo enjalo ayigcini nje ngokungenangqondo, kodwa iwukuvukela umbuso,” kusho yena.
